The End of the World as We Know It? (Time Left Until Possible Collapse of Earth's Support Systems)
CURRENT TOTAL
Live Counter Notable Facts
(Data shown in the table is for 2025. Counter shows current estimate)
Years to 1.5°C
Boundaries Crossed
Years to 2°C
Understanding The End of the World as We Know It? (Time Left Until Possible Collapse of Earth's Support Systems)
This sobering counter estimates the time remaining before Earth's critical support systems could face irreversible collapse. With six of nine planetary boundaries already crossed and multiple tipping points approaching, we have perhaps 5-7 years before triggering cascading failures.
The 1.5°C warming threshold - likely between 2030-2032 - marks the point where coral reefs die, ice sheets become unstable, and extreme weather becomes unmanageable. At 2°C (by 2050), we risk Amazon rainforest dieback, permafrost collapse, and potential societal breakdown.
This isn't about Earth ending - the planet will survive. It's about the collapse of the stable climate and ecosystems that enabled human civilization to flourish. Without immediate, transformative action, we face a fundamentally different and hostile world.
Planetary Tipping Points Overview
- Six planetary boundaries are already transgressed: climate change (CO2 at 425 ppm vs 350 safe limit), biosphere integrity (extinction rate 1000x natural), nitrogen cycle (306% over limit), phosphorus cycle (205% over), land-system change, and novel entities including 350,000+ chemicals.
- Critical tipping points loom: Greenland ice sheet collapse (locked in at 1.5°C), West Antarctic ice sheet instability (3-5m sea level rise), Amazon rainforest dieback (within 5-10 years at current deforestation), Arctic sea ice loss (summer ice-free by 2040s), and Atlantic circulation collapse.
- Cascading risks multiply impacts - drought triggers crop failure, causing migration, conflict, and economic collapse. Financial systems built on stable climate assumptions face systemic failure. Supply chains, already fragile, will shatter under compound stresses.
- The window for action is closing rapidly. To avoid 1.5°C requires 50% emission cuts by 2030 - we need 9% annual reductions but emissions are still rising. Every fraction of a degree matters: 1.5°C displaces 1 billion people, 2°C displaces 2 billion.
Collapse Risk Terminology
- Planetary Boundaries: Nine Earth system processes with safe operating limits
- Tipping Points: Thresholds triggering irreversible changes
- Cascade Effects: Interconnected failures across systems
- Hothouse Earth: Self-reinforcing warming beyond human control
Planetary Boundaries Status
- Climate change: Crossed (CO2 425 ppm)
- Biodiversity loss: Crossed (1000x natural rate)
- Nitrogen cycle: Crossed (306% over limit)
- Phosphorus cycle: Crossed (205% over)
- Ocean acidification: Approaching limit
- Ozone depletion: Safe (recovering)
Major Tipping Points
- Arctic summer ice: 2040s
- Amazon dieback: 2030s
- Permafrost thaw: Accelerating now
- Coral reef death: 2030s (99% loss at 2°C)
- Ice sheet collapse: Initiated at 1.5°C
Societal Impacts Timeline
- 2030: 1 billion climate displaced
- 2040: Major food system failures
- 2050: 3 billion in extreme heat
- 2070: Large regions uninhabitable
- 2100: 4-6°C world if no action
Data Sources and References
Methodology and Data Collection
The countdown estimate synthesizes climate projections, planetary boundary assessments, and tipping point research to indicate 5-7 years before crossing critical thresholds that could trigger cascading system failures.
Timeline based on current GHG emission trajectories, Earth system models, and analysis of historical collapse dynamics, representing the narrowing window for preventing irreversible changes to Earth's life support systems.